Okay, I had a good run for a while, but I’ve been stinking things up recently. To be fair, you can’t pick who will benefit because of weather—it was more likely for you to win the lottery than it was for us to get the Top 10 last week.

So, I’m breaking out the rabbits feet, the four-to-seven-leaf clovers and my lucky underwear, to divine some positive mojo for my picks this week.

First off, as usual, I’d like to point out my preview of Dover, which is more of the usual silliness you should be expecting from us here at Restrictor Plated.

As usual, here’s how this works: I pick who I think will be in the Top 10 in order of confidence about the pick. I’ll also tell you who I wouldn’t pick and why.

After qualifying I reserve the right to swap out two picks based on their efforts, but generally the list will remain mostly the same.

My Top 10 Record

Last week wasn’t very kind. I had three in the Top 10, but rain and pit strategy basically screwed it up for everyone. I had one good dark horse pick (Joey Logano who finished 9th) and one bad one (Marcos Ambrose who finished 26th). So…I mean, what are you going to do, right?

Last Week Top 10 Record 30% (3 of 10) Avg. Dark Horse Finish 17.5

This Season Top 10 Record (After 10 weeks) 46% (46 of 100) Avg. Dark Horse Finish (After 5 weeks) 17

Dover Fantasy Picks

Evil Greg Biffle
Seriously, I don’t know what to do about Greg Biffle. I pick him, he does poorly. I don’t pick him, he hits the Top 10. So, I’ve decided, I’m not picking Greg Biffle this week. I’m picking Evil Greg Biffle, his mirror universe doppelgänger. Where the Greg Biffle in this universe ignores my picks, the Evil Greg Biffle of the mirror universe follows my every pick precisely.

I don’t know, I have to do something. I’ve been wrong on Biffle like every week this year. He’s got two wins and six straight Top 10s at Dover.

Ryan Newman
Three wins, eight Top 10s at Dover. Didn’t pick him last week, but it was only luck that he hit the Top 10 and we all know it. But otherwise, still has a hot hand this season. I feel good about this.

Mark Martin
As Mark’s gotten older, he hasn’t been as good at most of the tracks as he used to be. But Dover is an exception for some reason. Not only has he done well here all time (4 wins, 28 Top 10s in 45 starts), but since 2004, he still has an average finish of 7.1 with one win. Couple that with his recent success, I think Mark Martin will have a good day Sunday.

Jeff Gordon
Since 2000, if you throw out five separate races were he wrecked or was caught up in a wreck (four led to DNFs, he only has five here all-time), his worst finish otherwise this decade is 12th.

Matt Kenseth
Finished 10th at Darlington and 10th again last week at Charlotte and even though last weekend was a fluke, he had a Top 10 car. Finished 4th and 2nd at Dover last year. Should do well this week.

Jimmie Johnson
Up-and-down this season, but usually good at Dover. He has three wins and nine Top 10s in 14 starts at Dover.

Kyle Busch
In only eight starts, he has a pretty good track record: one win, five Top 10s and only two DNFs, both engine failures. This is the first time in weeks I feel confident that Kyle could be here at the end.

Carl Edwards
Average finish at Dover over the past five races: 2.2. Hasn’t been that great this season, but at Phoenix, the only mile-long track so far this season, he still finished 10th.

#1 Martin Truex, Jr.
Has won here before. Finished 6th at this race last year, finished 7th at the only mile-long track this year too. I think he’s got a good Top 10 in him at Dover.

Tony Stewart
Tony, you are my “Girl in the Staples Commercial ‘*sigh* Sure, why not?’” pick of the week. I don’t know, sure. From 1999-2004, Tony had an average finish of 4.25 with two wins. Since then, his average finish is 24th with only one Top 10. He is doing well right now though, so…maaaaybeeee…

Dark Horse Picks for Dover

Joey Logano
I don’t know if I’m going to be able to keep calling him a dark horse for much longer. Has not raced at Dover in Cup before, but in his first Dover race in Nationwide he finished 6th. I think he’s a good pick to round out your “B” group picks.

David Reutimann
All the stats say that I shouldn’t pick him as a dark horse. Yes, he won last week, but as I keep saying (in part to convince myself that my bad picks last week were okay), CHARLOTTE WAS A FLUKE. And he came off three straight under-25 finishes before that. BUT, he finished 8th at Phoenix, the only yardstick I have for this season for tracks like Dover, so I think they could have a shot. Don’t underestimate the value of Charlotte being a confidence boost if nothing else.

Who NOT to Pick for Dover

Richard Childress Racing
I continue to recommend sitting the entire team until something improves.

Kurt Busch
Four Top 10s in 17 starts at Dover.

Kasey Kahne
Richard Petty Motorsports is putting the new Dodge engines into Kasey’s car this weekend, and while they may see an improvement, it will take a while to tune it to a point where it will bring value to the team. Besides, he only has one Top 10 in 10 starts at Dover.

Denny Hamlin
Best finish at Dover is 4th, but is also coming off three straight Dover finishes of 38th or worse.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Teams in chaos don’t win.

Tags: Carl Edwards, Casey Mears, Clint Bowyer, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Darlington Raceway, David Reutimann, Denny Hamlin, Dover International Speedway, Greg Biffle, Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, Kasey Kahne, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Lowe's Motor Speedway, Mark Martin, Martin Truex Jr., Matt Kenseth, Nationwide Series, Phoenix International Raceway, Richard Childress Racing, Richard Petty Motorsports, Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart

This entry was posted on Thursday, May 28th, 2009 at 1:18 pm and is filed under NASCAR Race Picks. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.